Greece running out of time to avoid collapse

Three months after Athens promised to deliver a program of reforms in return for more bailout cash, little progress has been made and the risk of default is rising.

希腊政府承诺提交改革方案以获取更多救助资金，三个月过去了，收效甚微，违约风险增加。

The Greek government insists it is still optimistic about striking a deal with its European creditors soon, but time is running out with hefty payments looming.

希腊政府强调很快会同欧洲的债权国达成协议，但是几间所剩不多，而沉重的债务负担迫在眉睫。

Greece needs about 1.7 billion euros to pay pensions and wages by the end of April, and one billion for payments to the International Monetary Fund by May 12.

希腊需要在四月底支付17亿欧元的养老金和工资，同时还要在五月十二日向国际货币基金组织(IMF)支付10亿欧元。

There is still 7.2 billion euros left in the 240 billion euro Greek bailout fund -- a lifeline the country needs to avoid "Grexit," or crashing out of the euro.

希腊2400亿欧元的救助资金只剩下72亿了，希腊依靠这条生命线来避免退出欧元区或导致欧元崩溃。

But the money will only be released if Greece’s creditors are happy with its plans for economic reforms -- and there are still big differences over the labor market, pensions, sales tax and privatization.

希腊的经济改革方案需要让债权国满意才能得到救助资金，但目前在劳工市场、养老金、营业税和私有化等问题上仍存在重大分歧。

"In the absence of a deal in the next few weeks, the government might not be able to avoid default, which -- we fear -- would likely raise the risk of Grexit," wrote UBS economists Reinhard Cluse and Gyorgy Kovacs in a note Friday.

“如果在未来几周内未能达成协议，希腊政府无法避免违约，我们担心这将会增加希腊退出欧元区的风险。”瑞士银行经济学家Reinhard Cluse和Gyorgy Kovacs在周五的一份报告中写道。

Officials from Greece, the eurozone and International Monetary Fund will resume talks Saturday in Brussels in an attempt to reach agreement before European finance ministers meet next Friday.

希腊、欧元区和IMF的官员将于周六在布鲁塞尔重新举行会谈，试图在下周五欧盟财长会议之前达成协议。

But the omens aren’t good. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doesn’t expect a deal next week, he was reported as saying on Wednesday.

但是前景并不明朗。据报道称，德国财长Wolfgang Schaeuble在周三表示下周应该不能达成协议。

A missed IMF payment would trigger panic. Greek banks are particularly vulnerable, relying on emergency liquidity from the European Central Bank. If no agreement is reached, the ECB could cut off this lifeline.

希腊如果不能偿还IMF的贷款将引发恐慌。希腊银行依靠欧洲央行的紧急流动资金，非常脆弱。如果达不成协议，欧洲央行将切断这条生命线。

A run on deposits and capital flight would almost certainly follow, forcing the government to impose capital controls and temporarily close banks to prevent them collapsing. A similar scenario unraveled when Cyprus’ banks started to implode in 2013.

届时挤兑和资本外流必然接踵而来，使政府被迫实行资本控制，临时关闭银行，以避免银行破产。应该同2013年塞浦路斯银行崩溃的场景相似。

The IMF is the world’s lender of last resort. If Greece doesn’t meet its IMF commitments, it won’t be able to borrow money anywhere else. No developed economy has ever failed to pay the IMF.

IMF是世界上最后可贷款给希腊的组织了。如果希腊不能兑现对IMF的承诺，将无法从别的地方获取贷款。目前还没有 出现发达国家经济体不能偿还IMF贷款的例子。

Although there is no mechanism for countries to leave the eurozone, without cash and cut off from its creditors, Greece would have little choice but to start printing its own currency.

虽然目前没有机制可使成员国离开欧元区，但没有资金，又被贷款人抛弃，希腊将别无选择，只能自己印刷货币了。

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来源:CNN双语新闻爱语吧作者:Sunmore