PBOC pares economic growth goal

The People’s Bank of China has lowered its full-year GDP growth forecast to 7 percent from the previous estimate of 7.1 percent issued in December as first-half economic momentum turned out to be weaker than expected.

由于上半年经济势头弱于预期，中国人民银行降低全年GDP增长预期，从去年10月份预定的7.1%下调至7%。

The PBOC also slashed its forecast for consumer price inflation to 1.4 percent from 2.2 percent previously. And it cut a number of other key forecasts:

央行同时也将消费价格预期通胀率从2.2%下降到1.4%，还下调了其他几项重要预期：

Exports: To 2.5 percent growth from 6.9 percent previously.

出口增长从之前的6.9%下调至2.5%。

Imports: To a 4.2 percent contraction from growth of 5.1 percent.

进口从5.1%的增长调为4.2%。

Fixed-asset investment: To a rise of 12.6 percent from 12.8 percent previously.

固定资产投资增长从先前的12.8%降为12.6%。

Retail sales: To growth of 10.7 percent from 12.2 percent.

零售增长从12.2%降为10.7%。

Overall economic conditions are worsening because of a faster-than-expected slowdown of exports and real estate investment, with the lowest indicators since the global financial crisis in 2008, Ma Jun, the central bank’s chief economist, wrote in the report.

央行首席经济学家马钧在报告中写道，由于出口和固定资产投资下滑速度快于预期，总体经济形势正在恶化，将是2008年全球金融危机以来的最低指标。

The PBOC did, however, forecast that the positive effects of already-announced policies will become evident starting in the third quarter.

然而，央行预计已经宣布的政策所发挥的积极影响将从第三季度变得更加明朗。

Recoveries in the United States and European economies are likely to support China’s export rebound.

美国和欧洲经济的复苏有可能支撑中国出口的反弹。

In addition, the rise of housing prices since April will accelerate property investment, according to the report.

此外，该报告指出，4月份以来房价的上涨势头将会加速房产投资。

Major economic figures for May are scheduled to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, and analysts’ consensus is for some slight improvement.

国家统计局预定于周四发布5月份的主要经济数据，分析师一致认为会有小幅提升。

"But policy easing and government support will prevent rising corporate distress from escalating to a level that would cause systemic risk to the onshore and offshore markets," it said.

但报告称：宽松的政策和政府的支持将防止增加企业危机上升到引起国内外市场连锁反应的程度。

It added: "Room is also available for a further loosening of monetary policy should macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate, given that real lending rates and the reserve requirement ratio remain high."

报告还提到，考虑到实际贷款利率和存款准备金率仍然很高，如果宏观经济形势进一步恶化，还有进一步宽松货币政策的空间。

Compared with other emerging markets, China has a more stable economic foundation, so the expected move by the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will have merely a limited impact on the country’s financial system, the PBOC report said.

央行报告指出，同其他新兴市场相比，中国具有更稳定的经济基础，因此美联储预计的加息措施对中国金融体系产生的影响极为有限。

However, capital outflows and currency depreciation in other emerging economies may cut China’s exports, it said.

报告同时还称，资本外流和其它新兴经济体货币贬值可能会降低中国的出口。

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来源:纽约时报中文网爱语吧作者:孙梦光