Will El Niño 2015 rival the strongest year on record?

If you don’t know El Ni?o now, you will soon.

如果你目前还不了解什么是厄尔尼诺现象，那么你很快就有机会对其进行了解了。

The waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean are heating up, scientists say, building towards a strong El Ni?o event that could rival the intensity of the record 1997 event that wreaked weather-related havoc across the globe, from mudslides in California to fires in Australia.

科学家们表示，东太平洋海域已经开始升温，厄尔尼诺现象正在酝酿，其强度有望超过1997厄尔尼诺记录。1997年的厄尔尼诺在全球范围造成了与天气相关的灾难，从加利福尼亚的泥石流到澳大利亚的大火。

What is El Ni?o and what causes one?

什么是厄尔尼诺现象？产生该现象的原因是什么？

El Ni?o is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, mainly along the Equator -- see the thick red belt in the satellite photo, which indicates waters that are warmer than normal. These warmer waters are normally confined to the western Pacific by winds that blow from east to west, pushing the warmer water toward Indonesia and Australia.

厄尔尼诺是东太平洋海岸增暖现象，主要在赤道附近，照片中卫星云图中显示的红色地带的水温高于正常水平。自东向西的风将这些温度较高的水限制在西太平洋海岸，水温较高的水域涌向印度尼西亚和澳大利亚。

But during an El Ni?o, the winds slow down and can even reverse direction, allowing the warmer water to spread eastward all the way to South America.El Ni?os occur every two to seven years in varying intensity, and the waters of the eastern Pacific can be up to 4 degrees Celsiuswarmer than usual.

发生厄尔尼诺时，风速会降低甚至调转方向，这便让增温水域一路向东涌向南美洲。每两年至七年间就会发生不同强度的厄尔尼诺现象，东太平洋海岸水域水温比正常高出4摄氏度。

What happens when there’s an El Ni?o?

厄尔尼诺会带来什么？

A strong El Ni?o heats up the atmosphere and changes circulation patterns around the globe, especially the jet stream over the Pacific, which becomes stronger and dumps more frequent and intense storms over the western U.S., especially California. It also means more rain for the west coast of South America.

较强烈的厄尔尼诺现象会导致大气气温上升，改变全球的环流模式，对太平洋上空的急流影响尤为明显，急流明显加强，给美国西部尤其是加利福尼亚州带来更加频繁更加剧烈的风暴天气，并为南美洲西海岸带来更多降雨。

But the atmosphere is somewhat of a zero-sum game. More rain in North and South America comes at the expense of normally rainy Southern Asia and Australia, which become abnormally dry and experience droughts.The Western Pacific, on the other hand, tends to see more and stronger typhoons, which may explain why there have already been 5 super typhoons there in 2015. Normally there’s only one by this point in the year.

但是大气类似零和游戏。北美和南美雨水增加，南亚以及澳大利亚则要告别正常将水，迎来干旱期。另一方面，西太平洋则迎来更多强劲的台风，这也解释了2015年出现5个超强台风的原因。正常情况，到现在只有一个台风。

The weather isn’t the only thing that’s affected. Warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific drive away the coldwater fish that are the backbone of the fishing industry in much of Latin America.

气候并非受影响的唯一领域。东太平洋水域增温，导致一些冷水鱼远离该领域，而冷水鱼是拉美水产捕捞业的支柱。

Which areas will be hit the hardest?

哪个地区将受到最大影响？

No two El Ni?os are exactly alike, and they’re only one of many different large-scale weather patterns acting in tandem to influence global weather. Nevertheless, if El Ni?o comes on as strong as current projections seem to indicate, we can say with some level of confidence that coastal South American countries will see above average rainfall and flooding over the next 6-9 months, while countries on the other side of the ocean like Australia and Indonesia will likely see drought.

没有哪两次厄尔尼诺现象完全相同，它们只是众多不同的大型气候模式，共同影响全球的气候。但是如果厄尔尼诺现象真如目前估计的那么强劲，那么我们有信心表示，在接下来的6至9个月间，南美国家将迎来超出正常水平的降水，甚至会有洪涝灾害。而位于大洋彼岸的国家，如澳大利亚和印度尼西亚，将面临旱灾。

完成阅读

来源:China Daily 双语版爱语吧作者:邱灿